Where Is The Microsoft (MSFT) top? Getting Ready To Pull The Trigger.

I'm starting to think that Microsoft (MSFT) is reaching the top of it's valuation($29.35).  Perhaps we get a bit of a kick up into year end that will prompt me to sell.  I'm not selling right now but I'm looking to sell April 30 calls against about a quarter of my position.  When I picked up the position in the summer (between $23 and $27) I was looking at just above 30 as my target price.  At a p/e of more than 20 against next years earnings, I'd be ready to sell.

Stock Traders Daily, Thomas Kee, sets out all the arguments to short MSFT.  While I'm not ready to short MSFT unless I see both huge overvaluation (not yet the case) and downside momentum, his arguments for shorting present good reasons to be ready to sell.

Here are the search results for my entries on Microsoft.



Disclosures and Confessions:  I own Microsoft (MSFT) at what I consider a full position.  I currently have outstanding limit orders to sell 30 strike call options with various expirations above the current market.  I do not own an XBOX though I think it's the best of the game platforms I've seen.  I have friends that work at Microsoft though I really don't talk to them about the company ever.  I like that Bill Gates has made a huge committment to philanthropy at such a young age. 

Disclaimer:  Nothing in this blog is meant to be specific financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.  I do not give investment advice.  Do your own research.  Do not rely on anything in this weblog to make investment decisions.  I do not log all my trades here. I only describe or mention those that I think might be interesting. Consult an investment professional familiar with your specific financial situation before buying or selling any security