Imperial Sugar (IPSU) - Not Just for Sweets Anymore: Ethanol and Energy
My grandmother, an inspiration to me who has been investing and trading stocks since the 1940's, recently bought Imperial Sugar (IPSU). (Recent Price $32.49) She asked me what I thought, here is my reply:
The stock has great momentum recently and looks cheap at a p/e of 12. Though forward earnings predictions (according to First Call) look much lower - likely based on lower predictions for sugar prices. That gives a p/e of 15 against predicted 2008 earnings.
So why have sugar prices been going up and why are they expected to decline? Sugar prices have been going up because of ethanol fuel used as a mix in gasoline. Sugar is the best thing to make ethanol out of. The only reason the US is making it from corn is because of subsidies (and a special tax on Brazilian Ethanol). Oh yeah, and the state with the largest influence on the presidential election produces huge amounts of corn. And its farmers receive massive government handouts. Whoever thought up the Iowa Caucus deserves an award from the economy of Iowa.
Grandma is a very astute stock picker, I can't remember ever being right when I go against her. But watch out for sugar prices to drop as oil prices drop. If I were betting on energy prices to increase, I'd rather own an oil company - they are so much cheaper on a valuation basis. I'll watch Imperial Sugar from now on and maybe pick some up on a fallback. I definitely don't want to own corn.
Disclosure: I do not own Imperial Sugar (IPSU) though I may buy on a price decline. I do own several oil companies not directly mentioned. Conoco-Phillips (COP), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Chevron (CVX), British Petroleum (BP), and Statoil (STO).
Disclaimer: Nothing in this web log is meant to be a recommendation to buy or sell. I do not give investment advice. Do your own research. Do not rely on anything in this weblog to make investment decisions. I do not log all my trades here. I only describe or mention those that I think might be interesting. Consult your own investment professional before buying or selling any security.
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8 Feb 2007, 7:49 PM
David Neubert wrote:
Grandma called from California gloat and let me know that Imperial Sugar (IPSU) announced a special dividend of $3.00 per share. I thought the stock was getting too much attention because of ethanol prices had driven up sugar prices in the short term and that the stock would eventually suffer. When I wrote my entry on September 25th IPSU was trading around $29. It had fallen all the way to just under $21 in December. The stock is now trading at $26 and holders on December 26th get that extra 3 bucks. So I'd be ... -
8 Feb 2007, 7:49 PM
David Neubert wrote:
Grandma called from California gloat and let me know that Imperial Sugar (IPSU) announced a special dividend of $3.00 per share. I thought the stock was getting too much attention because of ethanol prices had driven up sugar prices in the short term and that the stock would eventually suffer. When I wrote my entry on September 25th IPSU was trading around $29. It had fallen all the way to just under $21 in December. The stock is now trading at $26 and holders on December 26th get that extra 3 bucks. So I'd be ... -
8 Feb 2007, 7:49 PM
David Neubert wrote:
Grandma called from California gloat and let me know that Imperial Sugar (IPSU) announced a special dividend of $3.00 per share. I thought the stock was getting too much attention because of ethanol prices had driven up sugar prices in the short term and that the stock would eventually suffer. When I wrote my entry on September 25th IPSU was trading around $29. It had fallen all the way to just under $21 in December. The stock is now trading at $26 and holders on December 26th get that extra 3 bucks. So I'd be ... -
8 Feb 2007, 7:49 PM
David Neubert wrote:
Grandma called from California gloat and let me know that Imperial Sugar (IPSU) announced a special dividend of $3.00 per share. I thought the stock was getting too much attention because of ethanol prices had driven up sugar prices in the short term and that the stock would eventually suffer. When I wrote my entry on September 25th IPSU was trading around $29. It had fallen all the way to just under $21 in December. The stock is now trading at $26 and holders on December 26th get that extra 3 bucks. So I'd be ... -
8 Feb 2007, 11:19 PM
David Neubert wrote:
Grandma called from California gloat and let me know that Imperial Sugar (IPSU) announced a special dividend of $3.00 per share. I thought the stock was getting too much attention because of ethanol prices had driven up sugar prices in the short term and that the stock would eventually suffer. When I wrote my entry on September 25th IPSU was trading around $29. It had fallen all the way to just under $21 in December. The stock is now trading at $26 and holders on December 26th get that extra 3 bucks. So I'd be ... -
8 Feb 2007, 11:19 PM
David Neubert wrote:
Grandma called from California gloat and let me know that Imperial Sugar (IPSU) announced a special dividend of $3.00 per share. I thought the stock was getting too much attention because of ethanol prices had driven up sugar prices in the short term and that the stock would eventually suffer. When I wrote my entry on September 25th IPSU was trading around $29. It had fallen all the way to just under $21 in December. The stock is now trading at $26 and holders on December 26th get that extra 3 bucks. So I'd be ...
> http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/061108/0182099.html
I am having trouble with the decimal points and the extremely large numbers. I am trying to extrapolate the stated value of 200 barrels per day equal to 20 million dollars where they have sold a holding. quote:"
> - Subsequent to the end of the quarter, entered into an agreement to sell two small, non-operated assets of approximately 200 boe/d which would net proceeds of $20 million or $100,000 per flowing boe"
The other hypothesis I am trying to prove is: LUKOY needs a refinery and retail channel to process bulgarian crude and grow in North America. I am thinking HES and HTE as candidates.
Any illumination? Thank you John Heyer
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